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Thursday, August 6, 2020 | History

2 edition of News, noise, and fluctuations found in the catalog.

News, noise, and fluctuations

an empirical exploration

by Olivier Blanchard

  • 243 Want to read
  • 19 Currently reading

Published by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics in Cambridge, MA .
Written in English


About the Edition

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in the private sector"s estimates of these fundamentals (noise). Using a simple model where the consumption random walk hypothesis holds exactly, we address some basic methodological issues and take a first pass at the data. First, we show that if the econometrician has no informational advantage over the agents in the model, structural VARs cannot be used to identify news and noise shocks. Next, we develop a structural Maximum Likelihood approach which allows us to identify the model"s parameters and to evaluate the role of news and noise shocks. Applied to postwar U.S. data, this approach suggests that noise shocks play an important role in short-run fluctuations. Keywords: Aggregate shocks, business cycles, vector autoregression, invertibility. JEL Classifications: E32, C32, D83.

Edition Notes

Statement[by] Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul L"Huillier [and] Guido Lorenzoni
SeriesWorking paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics -- working paper 09-21, Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics) -- no. 09-21.
ContributionsL"Huillier, Jean-Paul, Lorenzoni, Guido, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics
The Physical Object
Pagination40 p. :
Number of Pages40
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL24647057M
OCLC/WorldCa678496959

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News, noise, and fluctuations by Olivier Blanchard Download PDF EPUB FB2

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Guido Lorenzoni.

NBER Working Paper No. Issued in May NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy.

Get this from a library. News, News, and fluctuations: an empirical exploration. [Olivier Blanchard; Jean-Paul L'Huillier; Guido Lorenzoni; National Bureau of Economic Research.] -- We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect.

Get this from a library. News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration. [Olivier Blanchard; Jean-Paul L'Huillier; Guido Lorenzoni] -- We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form and fluctuations book about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect.

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Guido Noise ⁄ September ⁄MIT and NBER, MIT, and MIT and NBER.

We thank Larry Christiano, Anna Mikusheva, Mark Watson, Chris Sims, and participants at the NBER Summer Institute, for very useful suggestions. Downloadable. We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations in which consumers form anticipations about the future based on and fluctuations book sources of information and these anticipations affect output in the short run.

Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in agents' estimates (noise). Resource constraints and inflation.

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In this paper, we ask Cited by: "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni & Olivier Blanchard, "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," Meeting PapersSociety for Economic Dynamics. The fluctuations of the charge carriers' number produce fluctuations of the resistance and, consequently, of current and/or voltage if a nonzero mean current is passing through the specimen.

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